Prime Minister Mark Carney can contain Quebec’s new separatist government without giving up anything on national unity. Recent polling explains why.
The Parti Québécois won 59 of 127 seats and about 28% of the vote, according to The New York Times. A majority requires 64 seats. Polls put support for independence at 30%, which The Guardian described as near record lows.
Voters care far more about the cost of living, healthcare and housing than about independence. The result reflected fatigue with the previous government, analysts told The Guardian.
Carney also holds a strong card. He remains extremely popular in Quebec. In support, a McGill University professor said the result should not be viewed as a rejection of him.
As a minority government, the Parti Québécois needs opposition support to pass key legislation and survive confidence votes.
Leader of Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said he would call a referendum “hopefully, with the help of other pro-independence lawmakers from other parties.”
Appealing to the separatists is the wrong goal. Plamondon said in a campaign debate that he was ready to “collaborate” with Carney, and he said he will work with Ottawa whenever it suits Quebec’s interests.
Canada has faced a province pushing to leave before. Quebec voted on independence in 1980 and 1995, and the movement lost both times, according to the BBC. Voters settled the question then, and voters can settle it again.
Real friction will come from policy. The party’s resistance to higher immigration levels, plans to cut Quebec’s ties to the monarchy and promise to block a high-speed rail line could increase tensions with Carney.
A referendum is not off the table either. Quebec Liberal leader Charles Milliard ruled not to collaborate on one, according to BBC, but the left-leaning sovereigntist Québec Solidaire won nine seats.
Time is on Carney’s side. Plamondon says no vote will come until President Trump leaves office, and Carney said he is focused on current challenges rather than those “a few years down the road.”
Quebec leaving would almost certainly reshape Canada-U.S. relations. Trump’s tariffs and his 51st-state rhetoric have stirred Canadian nationalism and complicated the separatist argument.
Quebec is among the hardest hit by the latest tariffs, with Oxford Economics projecting a C$2 billion blow, according to BBC. A smaller and divided Canada would face Washington from a weaker position, which is why keeping Quebec matters.
Alberta votes on Oct. 19 on whether to hold its own separation referendum, according to. Carney needs a united front at home before any serious talks with Trump can succeed.
The best answer to Quebec is steady federal leadership and a strong case for staying. Carney does not need to chase the separatists to win.
