On Monday, March 9, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Nasdaq composite gained 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.5%.
The market moved from panic over the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran with a spike in oil toward relief after President Donald Trump reportedly told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much.” Oil swung wildly from nearly $120 intraday back toward $90.
On Tuesday, March 10, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq finished roughly flat and the Dow declined 0.1%
Stocks lost momentum as investors waited for clearer signals on whether the war was winding down. Oil pulled back sharply, with Reuters noting over a 10% drop tied to hopes of de-escalation, but Wall Street has not fully trusted the move since Iran continued to attack and the geopolitical picture remained uncertain.
On Wednesday, March 11, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher and the Dow dropped 0.6%.
The February consumer price index report came in as expected, with headline CPI up 0.3% from last month and 2.4% year-over-year, while primary rent rose just 0.1%, the smallest increase since January 2021. Food prices accelerated 0.4% month-over-month.
Treasury yield rose sharply as investors shifted their focus toward rising oil prices, concerned that the higher energy prices could push the headline inflation higher in the coming months. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, the February CPI report is likely to keep the Central Bank holding rate steady as it watches current geopolitical tensions and economic outlooks. The Fed will release its next interest rate decision on March 18.
At the same time, the International Emergency Agency moved toward a recorded emergency oilstick release, while Meta outlined a roadmap for four new in-house artificial intelligence chips.
The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq edged 0.1% higher and the Dow dropped 0.6% on Thursday, March 12.
Oil surged back toward $100 after Iranian strikes on oil tankers and threats around the Strait of Hormuz reignited fears of a major supply shock. Inflation concerns pushed equities lower and drove yields higher. On the policy side, the U.S. launched new trade investigations under Section 301, targeting excess industrial capacity across 16 trading partners including China, with the administration saying the probes could lead to new tariffs by summer.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq lost 0.9% and the Dow slipped 0.3% on Friday, March 13, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline for major indexes.
Brent crude settled at $103.14, up 2.67% on the day and above $100 for the first time since August 2022. Meanwhile, fourth quarter U.S. GDP declined 0.7%, and January core personal consumption expenditure inflation ran at 3.1% year-over-year, reinforcing the idea that growth had already been weakening before the oil shock hit. Mortgage pressure also picked up; Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average rose to 6.11%.
