After his rookie breakthrough in 2023, Oscar Piastri looked sharper, more complete and perfectly aligned this season with McLaren, which had been looking for a strong second driver. Now in his third season, Piastri is competing neck-to-neck with his teammate.
His greatest strength has been his calmness. He made almost no mistakes, kept his tire management under control and maximized points on off weekends.
On Sept. 20, Piastri was at 78% and Lando Norris was at 22% on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. But after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Norris was at 80%, and Piastri at 13%.
Following the Singapore GP, it became clear that Norris was not giving up. After criticism regarding Turn 1, Norris responded by dominating both weekends.
Since the Saudi GP, Piastri has been dominating the World Championship.
With 189 days leading the standings, he was the clear favorite to become the first Australian champion since Alan Jones.
But after Singapore, Piastri’s frustration seems to be building. Even though McLaren claims to have given both drivers a fair chance, Norris’ favored status is still debatable.
Piastri must win all three races left, including one Sprint, which would put him at 449 points. If Lando finishes second in all three races, he will end with 444 points. The maximum points available across the remaining three race weekends is 83 points. Lando looks more confident, bringing four podiums in the last four races, including two wins. In Mexico City, there was sheer dominance with a 30.324-second winning difference, the largest margin of the season.
Piastri fumbled after the Azerbaijan GP with his first “Did Not Finish,” ending a 34-race points-scoring streak. After that, his confidence evidently dropped. In Singapore, a slow pit stop dropped him from fourth. In the following races in Mexico and Brazil, he finished fifth.
Las Vegas is the last street circuit on the calendar. With low-grip corners and long straights, one mistake can cost a lot.
This is the track where Max Verstappen dominated with his RB19 and RB20. If Norris doesn’t score any points here, the World Championship could be open for Piastri and Verstappen.
Qatar GP, on the other hand, is exactly the type of circuit Piastri excels at: fast corners, heavy tire degradation and strategy-heavy racing. In his rookie season, Piastri won the Qatar Sprint Race, so this is a track he will look forward to. After his incredible pit-stop to podium comeback at the São Paulo GP, props also go to Red Bull’s principal strategy engineer Hannah Schmitz.
Abu Dhabi hosts the season’s final races. McLaren has traditionally been competitive there, but Verstappen’s record at Yas Marina is unmatched.
If the title is still within single-digit points by the time the grid lines up, it will be the most dramatic finale since 2021.
Piastri must hold his nerve. He has won under pressure before and has led the championship longer than any driver this season.
He needs to deliver in every race, or this 2025 season will become the moment the championship slips away from him.
